Invited Speaker : Binod Pokharel
Title: Can Numerical Model be Utilized to Simulate the Extreme Events in Nepal?
Binod Pokharel is a climate scientist at Utah State University. Dr. Pokharel received his PhD from University of Wyoming focusing on cloud microphysics of orographic clouds and cloud seeding to enhance snowfall over the mountains. His current research area ranged from numerical simulation, climate change, climate variability, and extreme weather. Dr. Pokharel has published more than 20 research articles in peer reviewed international journals. He has given numerous talks at national and international conferences
Global temperature is rising and extreme weather is becoming more frequently around the world. Climate change has already strengthened extreme events that include ever recorded strongest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean, massive fires from Australia to Western United States, and extreme drought, precipitation and floods over many parts of the world are recent examples.
Nepal has witnessed the impact of extreme weather including drought and floods and more recently the extreme wind. The first-ever recorded tornado occurred in South-Central Nepal at the end of March 2019 that killed 30 people and injured more than 1000 people in Bara and Parsa districts. The high-resolution numerical model is simulated focusing on two extreme events that occurred around the same area. The first case is the recent extreme wind event from 2019 and the second case is the extreme precipitation and flash flood from the end of the 20th century that occurred in July 1993. More than 500 mm rainfall occurred within 24-hour on 19-20 July generating the flash flood in Bagmati River and many tributaries, damaging the Bagmati Barrage, Kulekhani hydropower, and east-west highway. Both observation and model simulation captured mesoscale features of these extreme events however the model is unable to simulate the convective storms’ right location as they occurred for a short duration of time over a small area. This presentation will focus on the strength and weakness of the numerical model that can be utilized for the forecasting and to study the genesis of extreme events..